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Just 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – not just the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. So I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.