🔗 Share this article An Alert for Keir Starmer drawn from His Own History: If You're Not Bold on Britain's EU Exit and Europe, His Party Challengers Shall Be. Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation. As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". But context is everything. In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace. The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures. Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion. A Lid That Rattles on Europe However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again. The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement. Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent. Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study. David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one. Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate. The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership. It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe. An Alarming Document & Strategic Calculations This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements. But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances. Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject. Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU. Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”. The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found. It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.