‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Tightens India's Cooking-Gas Stock.

People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an Indian city
People queue up to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an urban center.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

A closed restaurant shutter in an Indian city
A eatery in a southern city which has ceased operations due to a shortage of LPG.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials maintains there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and authorities say supplies are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Widening Concern

Now the concern is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

An oil tanker at sea representing imports
India sources up to 90% of the crude it requires, leaving it significantly susceptible to interruptions in global supplies.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports almost all of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative states exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.

Evelyn Wheeler
Evelyn Wheeler

A financial analyst with over a decade of experience in precious metals markets, specializing in investment strategies and economic forecasting.